Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and the missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - The expected net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending October 16, 2025/26 is 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, with similar ranges for corn, wheat, bean meal, and soybean oil [1] - If Indonesia upgrades from B40 to B50, it will require an additional 3 million tons of palm oil, reducing its export supply significantly as it currently exports 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 41% decrease [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may weaken its crushing capacity and limit soybean oil exports [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the federal government shutdown, and the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information. The missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - Surveys show expected net increases in US export sales for the week ending October 16: soybeans 60.0 - 200.0 million tons, corn 80.0 - 200.0 million tons, wheat 35.0 - 65.0 million tons, bean meal 15.0 - 45.0 million tons, and soybean oil 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] MPOC Forecast - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, it will need an additional 3 million tons of palm oil for blending, reducing its export supply to 22 million tons or less from the current 24 - 28 million tons annually [1][2] Global Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely on sunflower oil as US and Brazilian exportable soybean oil supply is expected to drop by 41% from 2.7 million tons in 2024/25 to 1.6 million tons in 2025/26 [2] - Argentina's soybean product export tax exemption policy has stimulated forward sales, which may limit its soybean oil exports in the coming months [2] - Sunflower oil prices remain strong, leading vegetable oil prices, with a price of $1,360 per ton in the European market in mid - October, indicating tight supply [2] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 17 - 23, 2025 are provided, including bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [11]
油脂油料早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-24 01:03