甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions for the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland areas. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it doesn't affect profits [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical producers are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, and downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and prices in Europe and the US are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the future. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and export continuity in Q4. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2280 to 2248, and the import profit decreased from - 10 to - 42 [2]. - Analysis: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. It's difficult to resolve the 01 contract contradictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland areas [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 780. The price of North China LL increased from 6830 to 6920, and the import profit remained around - 120 - 128 [6]. - Analysis: Inventory is neutral, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6000 - 6150. The price of East China PP increased from 6485 to 6525, and the export profit increased from - 15 to - 11 [6]. - Analysis: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is stable, import profit is stable, and exports are good. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to exports and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - Price Data: From October 17 to October 23, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 - 2450. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4660 - 4680, and the basis remained at - 90 [6]. - Analysis: The basis is stable, downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export continuity [6].