建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251024

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6946 | 6999 | 7013 | 6934 | 85 | 1.23 | 531489 | -18375 | | Plastic 2605 | 6965 | 7044 | 7060 | 6965 | 91 | 1.31 | 62406 | 487 | | Plastic 2609 | 7019 | 7058 | 7072 | 7015 | 65 | 0.93 | 1129 | 194 | | PP2601 | 6633 | 6691 | 6710 | 6616 | 84 | 1.27 | 618484 | -14771 | | PP2605 | 6656 | 6740 | 6755 | 6656 | 88 | 1.32 | 126580 | 1854 | | PP2609 | 6684 | 6734 | 6754 | 6678 | 61 | 0.91 | 6035 | 1037 | [3] Spot Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.56%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 770,000 tons [5] - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, in East China 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6000 - 6020 yuan/ton. The propylene price remained stable at a low level, downstream factories made purchases as needed, production enterprises aimed for stable sales, and a small number of offers were slightly adjusted. The overall market was in a wait - and - see mood [5] - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some market prices rising by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China drawstrings were in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, in East China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6999 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.23%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 18,375 lots to 531,489 lots. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan (1.27%), with an open interest decrease of 14,771 lots to 618,500 lots [4] - The slight increase in futures prices boosted the market atmosphere, and end - users made appropriate replenishments for production. There is an expected launch of a 400,000 - ton PP plant in Guangxi Petrochemical in the second half of the month. In the short term, maintenance of plants is still concentrated, the support from the "Silver October" demand is weakening, and high downstream costs, inventory, and limited profitability are suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm [4] - The operating rate of PE agricultural film is still at a high level, but the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The cost side rebounded strongly during the day, and the geopolitical situation and the results of China - US trade talks are uncertain, leading to wider oil price fluctuations [4] - The absolute prices of polyolefins are in a low - level range, and they rebounded slightly due to cost support. However, weak supply - demand and signals of open interest reduction are restricting the upward space [4] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][12]