原油成品油早报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, and the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened. The geopolitical premium faded, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers heading to major trading and transportation centers, on - land inventory pressure increased significantly in October, which is the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. [7] - Tensions in the Middle East flared up again as the Israeli Defense Forces carried out an air - strike on southern Gaza. Meanwhile, multiple factors influenced Russian oil supply, with India stating it would stop purchasing Russian oil, but the export volume from Russia to India in the first half of October increased by 250,000 barrels per day month - on - month. [7] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories fluctuated this week, and the total waterborne inventory remained flat. OPEC production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day in September, and crude oil net exports soared. Non - OPEC countries like Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Norway also saw a significant increase in crude oil net exports. [7] - This week, oil prices and global refinery profits weakened. The profit of gasoline in the external market was slightly stronger than that of diesel, while in the domestic market, gasoline was significantly weaker than diesel. During the peak maintenance period, downstream profits declined, and the domestic start - up rate was expected to weaken marginally. The demand side provided weak support for oil prices. [7] - The subsequent oil price trend depends on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the baseline scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is currently in the trend of waterborne inventory converting to OECD inventory. The expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran on their export volumes in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From October 17 to 23, WTI increased from $57.54 to $61.79, a rise of $3.29; BRENT rose from $61.29 to $65.99, an increase of $3.40; DUBAI went up from $63.26 to $65.24, a gain of $1.38. [3] - During the same period, SC increased by 12.50, OMAN rose by 4.93. The spread between SC and BRT changed by - 1.61, and the spread between SC and WTI changed by - 1.50. [3] - The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased from $537.00 to $551.50, and the spread between Japanese naphtha and BRT increased from $86.52 to $91.46. The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium changed by 0.73, and the spread between Singapore 380 and BRT changed by - 6.65. [3] 2. Daily News - German Chancellor Merz is optimistic that the US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. There are concerns that without the exemption, the German subsidiary may be cut off from major customers. [3] - The US government is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which has been opposed by local governors. The preliminary draft indicates a significant expansion of areas eligible for oil and gas leasing in the US. [4] - Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production in response to rising demand. This statement was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, an increase of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - For the week of October 10, US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected - 75,000 barrels, previous value - 1.601 million barrels), and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected - 294,000 barrels, previous value - 2.018 million barrels). [6] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, while diesel production increased. Gasoline inventory increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [6]