建信期货生猪日报-20251024

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 22nd, the main pig contract 2601 opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow - range oscillation, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,220 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 7 lots to 290,211 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Pig Review - Supply: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the pig slaughter volume in October continued to increase significantly, with high supply pressure. However, currently, the slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises across the country shows a stable and slightly faster rhythm, and the short - term slaughter pressure of large - scale farms has been alleviated to some extent. Also, with the expansion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, farmers have the sentiment of resisting price cuts and delaying slaughter for weight gain [7]. - Demand: Currently, secondary fattening continues to enter the market due to low meat - making costs and the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. After the price rebounded to a high level in some areas, it turned to a wait - and - see attitude. As the weather in the south cools down rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On October 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, 1,300 heads week - on - week, and 10,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the short - term supply has decreased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The spot price continues to oscillate and rebound. In the futures market, the pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, and it may rebound driven by the spot market. However, the entry of secondary fattening in October was relatively concentrated, and farmers mostly have the sentiment of hoarding and waiting for weight gain. Coupled with the continuous release of production capacity, it will form double supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [7]. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: On October 16th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased from outside was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [11]. - Piglet Price: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [11]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg in this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [11]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of pigs across the country was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [11]. - Slaughtering Enterprise开工率: In the week of October 16th, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The opening rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise opening rate increased slowly [11].