建信期货MEG日报-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol remains weak, but due to the boost from macro - sentiment, ethylene glycol is expected to show a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 23rd, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract was 4060 yuan/ton, the highest was 4119 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4052 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4086 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total trading volume was 188,925 lots, and the open interest was 334,305 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan, with an open interest of 334,305 lots, a decrease of 11,222 lots. The EG2605 contract closed at 4163 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan, with an open interest of 18,730 lots, an increase of 1,853 lots [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the operating rate of US refineries increased, boosting crude oil demand. After three consecutive weeks of inventory growth, crude oil inventories declined, and international oil prices continued to rise. On Wednesday (October 22), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.50 per barrel, up $1.26 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.34 - $59.83. The settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.59 per barrel, up $1.27 or 2.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.38 - $64.17 [8]. - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot (October bottom) negotiation price this week was 4189 - 4190 yuan/ton, up 79.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price before November 7 was 4168 - 4170 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 4168 - 4173 yuan/ton. The basis of the current spot (October bottom) was at a premium of 94 - 95 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before November 7 was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 73 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8]. - The inventory of liquid ports in East China showed a downward trend, decreasing by 0.27 million tons or 0.14% compared to the previous period. The breakdown of inventory changes was as follows: ethylene glycol decreased by 2.30 million tons, methanol increased by 1.20 million tons, styrene decreased by 0.05 million tons, pure benzene increased by 1.20 million tons, diethylene glycol decreased by 0.43 million tons, toluene increased by 0.76 million tons, and xylene decreased by 0.65 million tons [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18].