建信期货国债日报-20251024

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative factors materialized. The market stabilized but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack in the form of clear monetary easing. The Q3 GDP growth of 4.8% met expectations, with the domestic economic fundamentals slowing since the end of Q2. Although exports remained resilient, domestic demand was still weak, making policy stimulus necessary. The orientation of loose monetary and fiscal policies remained unchanged, but short - term monetary easing was unlikely. The bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw. It was necessary to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity, and pay attention to the possible hedging demand from Sino - US trade negotiations [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: Provided trading data of treasury bond futures on October 23, including contract details such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., with information on pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, etc. For example, TL2512 had a pre - settlement price of 115.600, a closing price of 115.210, a decline of 0.390, and a decline rate of 0.34% [6] - Market Performance: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the afternoon, the A - share market rose, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. The yields of major term interest - bearing treasury bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - long end rising less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.95bp [7][8] - Funding Market: The funding situation was stable with a marginal tightening. There were 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 212.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. As the tax payment period approached, the inter - bank funding sentiment index rose slightly. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31, the 7 - day rate dropped 0.6bp to 1.4267%, and the medium - long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remaining around 1.66% [9] 2. Industry News - International News: US President Trump said he expected to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy played an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there was no information to provide on the specific issue. On October 22, the US Senate failed to pass the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill, and the government "shutdown" stalemate continued. This was the 12th time the Senate had voted down the bill since the government "shutdown" [12] - Domestic News: PBOC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng attended the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable and other meetings, stating that trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties dragged down global economic growth, and developing countries faced increased debt burdens and liquidity problems. China actively participated in debt restructuring. Three policy banks announced that nearly 300 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been invested, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in total project investment. Since October, more than 10 small and medium - sized banks had cut deposit rates, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [13][14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Included information on the price differences between different terms and varieties of treasury bond futures' main contracts, as well as the trends of main contracts [15][16][19] - Money Market: Included the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate, the SHIBOR term structure, and the SHIBOR trend [27][32] - Derivatives Market: Included the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps [36]