《能源化工》日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, with weak price drivers. It may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. Strategy: BZ2603 should follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices [1]. - The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drivers are weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. LLDPE and PP - The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US frictions and US sanctions on refineries [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may be strong in the short - term but has limited rebound space. PTA is boosted in the short - term but also has limited rebound space. Ethylene glycol has a weak long - term supply - demand structure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also have limited rebound space [5]. Methanol - The price of methanol may continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the overseas plant operation stability, sanctions on ship clearance efficiency, and the port de - stocking rhythm [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - In the short - term, the price of caustic soda is weak, and it can be short - sold. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summaries by Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4% from the previous day. WTI crude oil (December) was $61.79/barrel, up 5.6% [1]. - CFR China Naphtha was $682/ton, up 1.5%. Pure benzene - naphtha was -$119/ton, down 8.8% [1]. Related Prices and Spreads of Styrene - On October 23, styrene in East China spot was 6550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. EB futures 2512 was 6566 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - On October 23, phenol cash flow was - 390 yuan/ton, down 15.7% from the previous day. Aniline cash flow was 1021 yuan/ton, down 6.4% [1]. Inventory - As of October 20, pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.00 million tons, up 10.0% from October 13. Styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 20.25 million tons, up 3.1% [1]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - From October 9 to October 16, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.2%, down 0.9%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate was 75.5%, down 3.8% [1]. LLDPE and PP Futures and Spot Prices - On October 23, L2601 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [3]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the PE device operating rate was 81.5%, down 0.37%. The PP device operating rate was 75.9%, down 2.9% [3]. Inventory - As of the latest data, PE enterprise inventory was 51.5 million tons, down 2.81%. PP enterprise inventory was 63.9 million tons, down 5.92% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4%. CFR China PX was $812/ton, up 1.8% [5]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On October 23, POY150/48 price was 6360 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. POY150/48 cash flow was - 2 yuan/ton, down 89 [5]. Operating Rates - From the previous week to the current week, the Asian PX operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.9%. The PTA operating rate was 76.7%, up 3.1% [5]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On October 23, MA2601 closed at 2292 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The Taicang basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 61.82% [6]. Inventory - As of the latest data, methanol enterprise inventory was 36.036%, up 0.13%. Methanol port inventory was 151.2 million tons, up 1.40% [6]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 75.85%, down 0.91%. The downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 78.1%, down 9.48% [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On October 22, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 was 4719 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [8]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - As of October 16, FOB East China port caustic soda was $380/ton, down 5.0%. The PVC export profit was 19 yuan/ton, down 81.5% [8]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - From October 10 to October 17, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 85.5%, down 3.9%. The PVC total operating rate was 75.1%, down 7.0% [8]. Demand (Downstream Operating Rates) - From October 10 to October 17, the alumina industry operating rate was not available, and the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 88.6%, down 1.1% [8]. Inventory - As of October 16, the liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.5 million tons, down 1.1%. The PVC total social inventory was 55.6 million tons, down 0.1% [8].