广发期货《农产品》日报-20251024

Report Overview - The reports cover multiple industries including粕类, pork, sugar, corn, cotton, oils, and eggs, providing daily updates on futures and spot market data along with industry outlooks and investment insights [2][5][8] 1. 粕类 Industry Core View - The improvement in the export outlook for US soybeans led to a rebound. Strong压榨 data provided support. Brazil's new soybean crop is being sown smoothly, with sufficient domestic soybean supply expected in Q4. However, current poor榨利 has slowed down procurement, and domestic soybean and粕 inventories remain high, limiting the upside potential of spot prices [2] Key Data - 豆粕:现价2940, up 1.38%;期价M2601 2938, up 1.84%;盘面进口榨利 for Argentina 12 - ship期 - 49, down 11.4% [2] - 菜粕:现价2410, up 0.84%;期价RM2601 2339, up 1.39%;盘面进口榨利 for Canada month - ship期 737, down 0.41% [2] - 大豆:哈尔滨大豆现价3900, up 0.26%;豆一主力合约期价4113, up 1.38% [2] 2. Pork Industry Core View - The recent rebound in pig prices is mainly driven by secondary fattening. However, the breeding end has high slaughter enthusiasm, and the market is not optimistic about future pig prices. The supply pressure in Q4 will continue to be released, and pig prices are not expected to improve. Policy - led industry capacity reduction will take time to show results, and spot prices are expected to face pressure until H1 next year [5] Key Data - 生猪2511:现价11515, up 0.48%;生猪2601:现价12200, down 0.16% [5] - 样本点屠宰宣 - 日:164551, up 0.11%;白条价格 - 周:18.50, down 2.68% [5] 3. Sugar Industry Core View - Due to supply pressure, the upward momentum of raw sugar prices is limited. The market is focusing on the production prospects of India and Thailand. The September production and sales data are moderately weak, with increased inventory year - on - year. New sugar pre - sale prices are much lower than the current market price, and the spot market is mainly driven by rigid demand. It is expected that the raw sugar price will fluctuate between 15 - 16 cents/pound, and the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8] Key Data - 白糖2601:现价5457, up 0.57%;白糖2605:现价5408, up 0.46%;ICE原糖主力:15.24, up 0.73% [8] - 食糖:产量(全国)累计值1116.21, up 12.03%;销量(全国)累计值1048.00, up 9.17% [8] 4. Corn Industry Core View - In the northeast, the price is temporarily stable due to storage conditions and收储 support, but traders' stocking willingness is low. In the north - central region, the price increase has slowed down due to increased sales. Overall, the price is stable with limited upside potential. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are cautious, but their inventories are relatively low, and future procurement willingness may increase. In the short term, the corn market will remain in a low - level volatile pattern [10] Key Data - 玉米2601:现价2140, up 0.33%;锦州港平舱价2160, down 0.92% [10] - 玉米淀粉2601:现价2450, up 0.99%;长春现货2510, unchanged [10] 5. Cotton Industry Core View - The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang is firm, providing cost support for Zhengzhou cotton futures. However, downstream demand is weak. Spinning enterprises' cotton inventories are not high, and their profit and cash - flow have improved at current cotton prices, creating some demand. In the short term, cotton prices will fluctuate within a range [13] Key Data - 棉花2605:现价13600, up 0.18%;棉花2601:现价13575, up 0.30%;ICE美棉主力64.02, up 0.58% [13] - 商业库存:172.02, up 68.4%;工业库存:80.93, down 4.3% [13] 6. Oils Industry Core View - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD futures may test the support at 4400 ringgit and face downward pressure. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillating adjustment. For soybean oil, traders are optimistic about Sino - US negotiations, which support CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, the spot market is following the decline, and the basis is stable with some local adjustments. The market is quiet, and the basis is expected to fluctuate slightly [14] Key Data - 江苏一级豆油:现价8450, down 0.71%;期价Y2601 8188, down 0.61% [14] - 广东24 - degree棕榈油:现价9000, down 1.10%;期价P2601 9132, down 0.35% [14] 7. Egg Industry Core View - The inventory of laying hens is high, and egg supply is sufficient. The downstream trade has increased replenishment enthusiasm, and demand has improved, which will drive egg prices up. However, the abundant supply may limit the price increase. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, but overall, there is still pressure [17] Key Data - 鸡蛋11合约:现价2848, up 1.86%;鸡蛋01合约:现价3238, up 2.89% [16] - 鸡蛋产区价格:2.91, up 2.07%;养殖利润: - 28.71, down 69.88% [16]