碳酸锂市场周报：消费向好库存稳降，锂价或将有所支撑-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a change rate of +5.05% and an amplitude of 7.32%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton [7]. - Macro Aspect: The communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7]. - Fundamentals: Overseas miners continue to support prices. The current demand of lithium salt plants is good, and the ore price rises with the lithium price. The smelters maintain a high production schedule, and the domestic lithium carbonate supply shows a stable growth trend. The downstream material factories have good production and order situations. The power battery benefits from the peak consumption season of the new energy vehicle industry, and the energy storage market also maintains a high growth rate. The domestic demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and the industrial inventory is gradually reduced [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of October 24, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 79,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,820 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot Price: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 4,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,770 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Spodumene: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 897 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1221, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [24]. - Lepidolite: As of the latest data, the average price of lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,835 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 112 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 8,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 700 yuan/ton [31]. 3.4 Industry Supply - Imports and Exports: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07% [34]. - Production: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from August, an increase of 2.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 47.59%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [34]. 3.5 Downstream Demand - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: As of October 24, 2025, the average price was 95,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25% [38]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 246,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from August, an increase of 2.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 35.93%. The monthly operating rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1% [41]. - Ternary Materials: As of September 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 63,140 tons, a decrease of 2,720 tons from August, a decline of 4.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.56%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to strengthen [46]. - Lithium Manganate: As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,920 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from August, a decline of 3.97%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.52%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [51]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,080 tons, an increase of 100 tons from August, an increase of 0.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 103.23% [54]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% and a year - on - year increase of 7.52%. The monthly production was 1,617,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 16.25%, and the monthly sales were 1,604,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 14.98%. The cumulative export volume was 1.758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 89.44% [56][61]. 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying is 0.23, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option [66].