铝类市场周报：预期向好库存去化，铝类或将有所支撑-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be supported by positive expectations and inventory depletion. For different aluminum - related products, the fundamentals show different characteristics, but generally present a positive outlook. It is recommended to conduct light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Performance: Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum all showed a strong and upward trend. Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.51% to 21,225 yuan/ton, Alumina increased 0.36% to 2,810 yuan/ton, and Cast Aluminum rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [6][8]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply may increase slightly, while consumption is strong, and inventory is depleting. For alumina, supply is expected to decrease, and demand may be slightly boosted. For cast aluminum, it is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations [5][6][9]. - Strategies: Light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Trends: As of October 24, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,205 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from October 17; London Aluminum closed at 2,865 US dollars/ton on October 23, up 2.47% from October 17. Alumina futures rose 0.22% to 2,785 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [12][16]. - Ratio and Spread: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.38, down 0.47 from October 17. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,130 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from October 17, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 66,495 yuan/ton, up 3,015 yuan/ton from October 17 [13][21]. - Inventory and Position: Shanghai Aluminum's position increased by 22.47% to 607,128 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 10,191 lots to 4,602 lots. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 0.81% to 21,130 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [19][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: As of October 23, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 3.56% to 477,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased 2.2% to 122,028 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased 0.7% to 568,000 tons. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased 5.62% to 66,695 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - Raw Materials: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine bauxite ports decreased by 100,000 tons to 26.69 million tons. The price of scrap aluminum was firm, and in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 25.3% year - on - year, while the export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [37][43]. - Production and Trade: In September 2025, alumina production increased 8.7% year - on - year, imports decreased 36.43% month - on - month and increased 61.68% year - on - year, and exports increased 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. Electrolytic aluminum production increased 1.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 80.13% year - on - year in September 2025. The total output of aluminum products decreased 1.5% year - on - year, imports increased 35.4% year - on - year, and exports decreased 7.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy increased 10% year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased 17.1% year - on - year, with imports decreasing and exports increasing [46][53][57]. - Downstream Markets: The real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 92.78 in September 2025, down 0.27 from the previous month. Infrastructure investment increased 3.34% year - on - year from January to September 2024. In September 2025, automobile sales increased 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased 17.15% year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74].