白糖市场周报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. The sugar production in Thailand and India has recovered, which has a key impact on the supply side. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total expected output of about 1.4 million tons. In the short term, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of about 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% year-on-year. The progress of imported sugar significantly accelerated in the third quarter. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons. Coupled with the opening of the window for out - of - quota imported sugar, the pressure of future import volume is still obvious. The downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease in the future. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63% [5] - Market Outlook: The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production, with an expected output of 1.4 million tons. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 9.4% year - on - year. The annual import volume is expected to exceed 5 million tons. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, but the cost support for the futures price is emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - Future Focus: Domestic production and sales, and new - season output forecast [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.87% [10] - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.88 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.53 cents per pound from last week [17] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 78,827 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 8,185. The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 48 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 304 yuan/ton [19][26][30] - Spot Market: As of October 24, the price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,780 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,750 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,730 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit of Brazilian sugar was 1,624 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated in - quota profit of Thai sugar was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last week [36][42] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year. As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 27.91% from the previous month and an increase of 5.45% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [45][48][52] - Demand Side - General Sales Rate: As of the end of September 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's monthly refined sugar production was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and the monthly soft drink production was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [57][61] 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Related Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart [62] - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented [66]