Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Driven by the recent strength of natural rubber, the low - price transactions have improved while the mainstream supply price has adjusted back. However, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls has increased, and some production enterprises have reserved inventory. The overall inventory level of production enterprises has continued to rise, and the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased. In the short term, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls is expected to further increase, and production and capacity utilization may decline. Considering the possible weakness of the raw material end, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease and the inventory of trading enterprises will increase [8]. - This week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises have mostly returned to normal levels, driving the overall capacity utilization rate to rise slightly. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises have mostly remained stable. With concentrated orders for snow tires and a large number of specifications and models, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises has been stable, and the production schedules of most enterprises are expected to remain stable. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy Suggestion: The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Market Outlook: Production and inventory are expected to change due to plant overhauls and raw material price trends. Tire enterprise production and capacity utilization are expected to remain relatively stable [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed up with a weekly increase of 2.73% [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided other than the title. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 24, the 11 - 12 spread of butadiene rubber was 70 [18]. - Warehouse Receipt: As of October 24, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of October 23, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was reported at 11,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of October 23, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of October 23, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36.13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 65.62%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2 Industry - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization: In September 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 130,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous month. As of October 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.45%, a decrease of 1.37% from last week [34]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: As of October 23, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of October 24, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,170 tons, an increase of 410 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,650 tons, an increase of 750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,520 tons, a decrease of 340 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [44]. - Tire Export Volume: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [48]
合成橡胶市场周报-20251024
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:20