Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54%. The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.56%. The price of the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [6][10][20] - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress over 50% and faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning mills increased slightly. The acquisition of inland cotton was slow due to continuous rainfall. On the demand side, the demand of downstream textile enterprises was relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment did not improve significantly. The impact of trade situation on the market needs to be concerned. Currently, new cotton is on the market, and the upside of cotton prices is limited in the short term due to hedging pressure [6] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term. Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54% [6] - Market Outlook: In the domestic market, the supply side has different situations in Xinjiang and inland. The demand side is weak. New cotton is on the market, and the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term [7] - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 0.56% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose by about 1.54%, and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [10][20] - Net Positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 107,552 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 16 lots [26] - Warehouse Receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,503, and that of cotton yarn futures was 6 [32] Spot Market - Cotton Spot Price: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,803 yuan/ton [39] - Cotton Yarn Spot Price: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,500 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,690 yuan/ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,600 yuan/ton [48] - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price: As of October 23, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week; the imported cotton price with quota was 13,004 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan/ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties also had corresponding prices [54] - Imported Cotton Profit: As of October 23, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 804 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from last week [57] - Price Spreads: This week, the price spread between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 0 yuan/ton, and the price spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,697 yuan/ton. The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,263 yuan/ton; the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract was 690 yuan/ton [35][44] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of September 30, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons. At the end of August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises decreased slightly, with an inventory of 892,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous month [62] - Imported Cotton Volume: In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50%. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [68] Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [71] - Textile and Garment Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [76] - Domestic Garment Retail Sales: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [80] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week was presented, but no specific data was given [81] - Stock Market: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was shown, but no specific analysis was provided [84]
棉花（纱）市场周报-20251024
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:20