瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251024

Report Summary Core Viewpoint - This week, the port methanol market was weak, and the inland market declined. The overall domestic methanol production decreased due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than output from restored capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased slightly. In October, the expected sufficient imports may further raise the port inventory. The overall olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week, and it may continue to decline in the short term due to cost pressure and falling downstream prices. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the port methanol market was weak. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2230 - 2300 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market declined. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranged from 2010 - 2053 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2267 - 2277 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased. The overall supply pressure was not significant, and the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, and there is still a possibility of further increase in October. The olefin industry's operation rate decreased this week and may continue to decline in the short term [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2320 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures was flat this week, with a 0% change [10]. - As of October 24, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 45 [14]. - As of October 24, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 14092, an increase of 2810 compared to last week [22]. - Spot Market - As of October 23, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 237.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. - As of October 23, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 261 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 65 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton compared to last week [32]. - As of October 23, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to last week. - As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.29 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [39]. - Industry - As of October 23, China's methanol production was 1943465 tons, a decrease of 39690 tons compared to last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% compared to last week [42]. - As of October 22, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.04 tons, an increase of 0.05 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.13% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 21.57 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons compared to the previous period, a 5.79% decrease. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 151.22 tons, an increase of 2.08 tons compared to the previous data [48]. - In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 142.69 tons, a decrease of 18.92% compared to the previous month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative methanol imports were 966.67 tons, a decrease of 3.94% compared to the same period last year. As of October 23, the methanol import profit was - 6.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.1 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. - Downstream - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 91.44%, a decrease of 1.97% compared to last week [54]. - As of October 24, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 954 yuan/ton, an increase of 111 yuan/ton compared to last week [57]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report.