沪铅市场周报：供给增加需求不变，沪铅价格持续平稳-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2511 rising 3.43%. Driven by the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the demand for Shanghai lead increased, and the price rose significantly against the backdrop of a sharp decline in inventory [4]. - In terms of supply, the output of primary lead is expected to increase slightly, and the recovery of secondary lead output is limited. In the short - term, the spot of lead ingots will remain tight. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumer peak season has supported the demand for lead. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will inhibit the growth of demand to a certain extent. The inventory has been continuously decreasing, but it may change next week. Overall, Shanghai lead is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week, but the strength is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead fluctuates in the range of 17300 - 17800, with a stop - loss range of 17200 - 18000. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated, and the main contract 2511 rose 3.43%. Driven by the peak season, the demand increased, and the price rose significantly with the decline in inventory [4]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the output of primary lead is expected to increase slightly, and the recovery of secondary lead output is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, but the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure. The inventory has been decreasing but may change. Overall, Shanghai lead is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week, but it is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2512 of Shanghai lead fluctuates in the range of 17300 - 17800, with a stop - loss range of 17200 - 18000, and pay attention to risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead rose, and the ratio increased. As of October 23, 2025, the futures closing price of LME 3 - month lead was $2010.5 per ton, the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17565 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.74 [6][10]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and discount weakened, while the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of October 23, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 340 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 36.83 dollars per ton [12][14]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lead inventory decreased both at home and abroad, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 2.61 tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons; the total LME lead inventory was 239750 tons, a decrease of 10650 tons; the number of warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead was 23734 tons, a decrease of 8273 tons [30][34]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Primary Lead: As of October 16, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 81.64%, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.91 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons from the previous week [18][20]. - Secondary Lead: As of October 16, 2025, the average production of secondary lead in major domestic producing areas was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons, and the average capacity utilization rate was 48.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.17% [25][28]. - Import and Export: In September 2025, the export of refined lead decreased significantly, and the import of refined lead also decreased. The export of refined lead was 1795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import of refined lead was 1507.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 94.69%. The import of lead alloy was 12784 tons. The import of lead concentrate increased by 11.72% month - on - month and decreased by 7.21% year - on - year. The import of lead ingots was 1.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.26 million tons [36][38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - Processing Fee: As of October 16, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 380 yuan per ton, and the average processing fee of imported lead concentrate was - 90 dollars per thousand tons [40][42]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In September 2025, the overall automobile sales were 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. The sales of new energy vehicles were 1.604 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%. The automobile export was 652,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% and a year - on - year increase of 21% [44][47]. - Recycling Price: As of October 23, 2025, the average price of recycled lead batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19540 yuan per ton [49][52].