Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market had a cluster of positive factors, and rubber prices rose strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but the factory's inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. The downstream purchasing willingness was fairly weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average, with actual transactions being light [9]. - Globally, natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, tapping is normal, and raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, raw material purchase prices remain firm. In Hainan, continuous rainy weather has disrupted tapping operations, with limited fresh latex output and low raw material purchase volume by local rubber processing plants [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are seeing inventory reduction, with the reduction in general - trade warehouses exceeding expectations. After the holiday, tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, leading to an increase in提货 volume from general - trade warehouses. Coupled with the improved restocking sentiment due to falling rubber prices, the overall warehouse outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume [9]. - In terms of demand, domestic tire companies' production schedules have mostly returned to normal levels this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire companies' production schedules are mostly stable, and with concentrated snow - tire orders, production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. Full - steel tire companies' shipments are stable, and most companies' production schedules are expected to remain stable, with overall capacity utilization expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market had positive factors this week, with rubber prices rising strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but factory inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market was strong and volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [9]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has normal tapping and okay raw material supply, while Hainan has limited raw material output due to weather. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, and demand is expected to keep overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Trends: The main contract price of Shanghai - traded rubber futures rose by 4.36% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - numbered rubber futures rose by 2.29% [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai - traded rubber and 20 - numbered rubber [15][17]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 24, the spread between the January and May contracts of Shanghai - traded rubber was - 55, and the spread between the November and December contracts of 20 - numbered rubber was - 15 [23]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 24, Shanghai - traded rubber warehouse receipts were 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week; 20 - numbered rubber warehouse receipts were 42,640 tons, an increase of 2,521 tons from last week [28]. - Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of October 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - 20 - numbered Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis: As of October 23, the basis of 20 - numbered rubber was 818 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - Upstream - Thailand: As of October 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.4 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.6 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic Producing Areas: As of October 23, the price of latex in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [45]. - Import Volume: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [48]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded - area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general - trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [52]. - Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of October 23, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [55]. - Tire Exports: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [59]. - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251024
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:15