Group 1: Report Core View - The precious metals market entered a volatile pattern after a significant correction due to the release of profit - taking sentiment and the cooling of the tariff situation. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. Most Fed voters support a loose path, and a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the October FOMC meeting is almost certain. The market focuses on employment data and future rate - cut margins. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors also affect the market. Gold still has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded against. The precious metals' short - term trend may be wide - range volatile, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [8]. - The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be wide - range volatile. The London gold price has strong support at the $4000 mark and a key resistance area around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract in the range of 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday will be a key factor, and a stronger - than - expected CPI may weaken rate - cut expectations and lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in the precious metals market. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the 22 - day government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. The tariff situation is likely to be stable, and most Fed voters support a loose path. The 10 - month FOMC meeting is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors affect the market [8]. Market Outlook - Gold has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded. The London gold price has support at $4000 and resistance around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday is crucial, and a strong CPI may lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - This week, the profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in precious metals. As of October 24, 2025, COMEX silver was at $47.52 per ounce, down 6.14% for the week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 11332 yuan/kg, down 7.49% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4065 per ounce, down 4.72% for the week; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 938.10 yuan/gram, down 6.17% for the week [9][11]. - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, up 1.72% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month. Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX precious metals position data has not been updated [12][16]. - As of October 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 0.28 yuan/gram, up 95.9% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 89 yuan/kg, up 45.9% month - on - month. The gold and silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and New York COMEX basically decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 38958914.92 ounces, down 0.48% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 84606 kg, up 19.62% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 503832524 troy ounces, down 2.3% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 920103 kg, down 21.3% month - on - month [22][30] Group 4: Silver Industry Import Situation - As of September 2025, China's silver import volume was 245749 kg, up 19.17% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and its concentrates was 160587998 kg, down 13.19% month - on - month [36] Downstream Demand - Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production has been rising. As of August 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20% [38][42] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [44][48] - The silver supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [50][52] Group 6: Gold Industry Price Changes - As of October 24, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 939.30 yuan/gram, down 3.66% month - on - month; Lao Fengxiang's gold price was 1228 yuan/gram, down 2.84% month - on - month; Chow Tai Fook's gold price was 1232 yuan/gram, down 2.38% month - on - month; Saturday's gold price was 1164 yuan/gram, down 3.32% month - on - month [54][58] Demand Changes - According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [60] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility dropped significantly, and the ratio of SP500/COMEX gold price increased. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.30%, and inflation expectations rose slightly [64][68][71] - In October 2025, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons, significantly more than other countries [75]
贵金属市场周报-20251024
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-24 09:26