贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path, with long - term support from central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations due to geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure [3] - Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, with a bullish outlook on copper prices [17] - China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [38] - Zinc's supply - demand situation shows domestic stable supply and overseas production cuts, with low inventory supporting prices [61] - Nickel ore regulations in Indonesia are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely [76] - Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term [90] - Good market demand for lithium carbonate and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Fundamentals: Market focuses on US September CPI data for Fed's interest - rate cut path. Long - term supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credit, but short - term fluctuations are caused by geopolitical ease and technical selling pressure. Tensions between Russia and the US add to market uncertainty [3] Copper - Policy Impact: Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan" strengthen demand expectations for copper, and policies are bullish on copper prices [17] - Futures Data: Latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, with the highest daily increase of 1.92% for the main and continuous - one contracts [18] - Spot Data: Spot copper prices in different regions have daily increases ranging from 1.09% to 1.17%, and there are changes in spot premiums and discounts [24] Aluminum - Macro and Fundamentals: China's core CPI rise in September and expected Fed rate cut are positive for aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support. Short - term SHFE aluminum may fluctuate at a high level [38] - Futures Data: Latest prices of SHFE aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [39] - Spot Data: Spot aluminum prices in different regions and relevant premiums and discounts have daily changes, and LME aluminum spot price and premiums also change [49] Zinc - Supply - Demand and Price: Domestic zinc supply is stable, overseas production is cut, and low inventory supports prices. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets is large, and short - term attention should be paid to export windows and macro - driving factors [61] - Futures Data: Latest prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [62] - Spot Data: SMM zinc average prices increase by 0.41%, and there are changes in LME zinc premiums [69] Nickel - Industry Conditions: Indonesia's nickel ore regulations are stricter. The new energy sector is in a peak season, nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless steel may fluctuate widely. WTO rulings and BIS certifications are positive for stainless steel exports [76] - Futures Data: Latest prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts show different changes, along with changes in trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts [77] Tin - Supply - Demand: Tin supply is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a predicted support level of 276,000 yuan [90] - Futures Data: Latest prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations [91] - Spot Data: Spot tin prices in different categories have daily increases ranging from 0.35% to 0.83% [93] Lithium Carbonate - Market Outlook: Good market demand and continuous warehouse destocking are expected to support futures prices [103] - Futures Data: Latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts show different daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [104] - Spot Data: Prices of various lithium products show daily and weekly changes, and there are changes in price spreads between different lithium products [108] Silicon - Industry Conditions: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly with coming dry seasons, while the polysilicon market is bearish [115] - Futures Data: Latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts show different daily changes and fluctuations, and there are changes in price spreads between contracts [115] - Spot Data: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are stable, with changes in basis and price spreads [115]