Report Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures trended weakly due to concerns about potential export growth slowdown and significant production increase. The price may test the support of the 60 - day moving average at 4400 ringgit. With a bearish fundamental outlook and expected substantial month - end inventory growth, there's a risk of breaking below the 60 - day moving average. However, as production enters the decline season in November and the market speculates on Indonesia's B50 policy, the price may stabilize and recover [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, dragged down by rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil. The price may seek support at the 9000 - yuan mark, with strong support at the annual line of 8900 yuan. After this round of adjustment, it may slowly recover following Malaysian palm oil. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [3]. Soybean Oil - The market is currently focused on the results of the China - US negotiations. Domestically, demand is weak, and traders are reluctant to purchase due to concerns about price drops. Although soybean import costs support the market, there are also bearish factors. In the short term, the Dalian soybean oil January contract will fluctuate around 8200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rise again, it may increase slightly; otherwise, it may fall to 8000 - 8100 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - Spot prices of bean meal increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and near - month basis decreased by 10 - 20 yuan. Some oil mills in North and South China suspended production due to delayed soybean arrivals, and cost inversion boosted the price - holding attitude. However, due to the unclear outcome of China - US trade negotiations, feed enterprises are digesting existing inventories, and traders' enthusiasm for chasing prices is limited [17]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 24 | - 2 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 244 | - 6 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 166 | - 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 92 | - 6 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 10 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 389 | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 71 | 13 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 460 | - 16 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 944 | - 18 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1086 | - 16 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 958 | - 2 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7869 | - 2.4% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.896 | - 1.54% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7487 | - 1.33% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.1714 | - 2.14% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0519 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8529 | - 1.93% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9122 | - 0.11% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9104 | - 0.04% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8858 | - 0.34% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4442 | - 0.65% | | 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 9050 | 50 | | 24 - degree Basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 132 | - 108 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 461.996 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 3.86 | - 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8194 | - 0.17% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8016 | - 0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7906 | - 0.17% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 50.86 | 1.68% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8350 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 162 | - 20 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 46.382 | - 11.2948 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 500 | 110 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2933 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2768 | - 2 | - 0.07% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2880 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2325 | - 14 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2300 | - 12 | - 0.52% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2401 | - 12 | - 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1061.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.125 | - 0.0019 | - 0.03% | [18] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 168 | 26 | RM01 - 05 | 27 | 19 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 101 | - 10 | | M09 - 01 | - 53 | - 29 | RM09 - 01 | 74 | - 9 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 40 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 42 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2450 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 111 | - 32 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 530 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 599 | 21 | [19][21]
油脂油料产业日报-20251024
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-10-24 10:38