Group 1: Core Views - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensify, and domestic smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, increasing the expectation of supply tightness [4] - New copper demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers is significant. Coupled with power grid investment and automobile market policy stimulus, consumption potential supports copper prices [4] - Domestic social inventories are increasing, and LME and COMEX inventories are also at annual highs, suppressing the upward space for prices [4] - The continuous strengthening of copper prices has led to an increase in the fear of high prices among downstream users. Spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the procurement and sales sentiment index is low [4] - In the short term, copper prices will remain oscillating and slightly strong. The main reasons are that the supply disturbances at the mine end remain unsolved, and the demand increment is clear, but inventory pressure and macro uncertainties limit the increase [5] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 87,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The position is 275,672 lots, with a weekly increase of 60,099 lots, and the trading volume is 174,100 lots [6] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 87,686 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.97%. The position is 544,945 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,295 lots, and the trading volume is 192,281 lots [6] - The latest price of International Copper is 76,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.25%. The position is 4,541 lots, with a weekly increase of 43 lots, and the trading volume is 8,629 lots [6] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 10,817 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.82%. The position is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and the trading volume is 24,037 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 508.55 US dollars/pound, with a weekly increase of 2.05%. The position is 133,167 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,937 lots, and the trading volume is 45,662 lots [6] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,645 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.94% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 86,370 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,535 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.81% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu is 86,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,510 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.78% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous is 86,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,570 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.85% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 45 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.82% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 144.44% [11] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 100% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 65 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 56.52% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - 11.55 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.39 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.49% [11] - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 111.99 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15.76 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 12.34% [11] Group 4: Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 890.28 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 231.8 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 20.66% [12] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 42.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.5 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 3.69% [12] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.0724, with a weekly increase of 0.0176 and a weekly increase rate of 0.43% [12] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,365.96 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 370 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 12.35% [12] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 35,071 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,778 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 18.15% [17] - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 12,890 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1,628 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 11.21% [17] - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 104,792 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,448 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.94% [17] - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 126,150 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,750 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.89% [17] - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,775 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,225 tons and a weekly increase rate of 42.72% [20] - The LME Copper inventory is 136,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 525 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.38% [20] - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 150,958 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,646 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.72% [20] - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 196,540 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,492 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.87% [20] - The COMEX Copper inventory is 347,498 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,846 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.83% [20] - The copper mine port inventory is 46.8 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.1 million tons and a weekly decrease rate of 8.06% [20] - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20] Group 6: Copper Mid - stream Production Data (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.301 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10% [23] - In August 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.222 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative production was 18.575 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.6% [23] Group 7: Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rod was 15.84 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.23%, with a monthly increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rod was 8.19 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 25.37%, with a monthly increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper plate and strip was 3.59 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.24%, with a monthly increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rod was 2.2865 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.9%, with a monthly increase of 1.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.52% [25] - In September 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tube was 2.783 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.44%, with a monthly decrease of 3.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.58% [25] Group 8: Copper Element Import Data (Monthly) - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrate was 2.59 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import was 22.66674 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 50,135 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33%. The cumulative import was 578,772 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 331,885 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3%. The cumulative import was 2,537,977 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 184,080 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cumulative import was 1,698,922 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% [29] - In September 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 490,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The cumulative import was 4,020,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [29]
铜周报-20251024
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-10-24 10:43