锌产业周报-20251024

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply remains in a continuous shortage, supporting a bullish market sentiment [3] - Social inventories have decreased slightly, spot supplies are tight, and demand is relatively stable [3] Bearish Factors - China's refined zinc production has increased significantly year-on-year, and high mining processing fees have added supply pressure [3] - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China continues, and the fundamentals are relatively weak [3] Trading Advisory View - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in Shanghai zinc dominates the current market. Low inventories provide limited support, but the contradiction is dulled [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly production of galvanized sheet coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [4][7][9] - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - sized cities [12][14][16] - In addition, it shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) [17] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Data on the monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, and the combined monthly production and import volume seasonality of Chinese zinc ingots are provided [20][22][23] - Information on zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc weekly inventory futures, and exchange zinc ingot inventory is also included [26][27] Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the premium/discount of LME zinc [29][30][31] - It also presents the seasonality of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium/discount, the seasonality of Tianjin zinc ingot basis, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [34][35][38]