建信期货能源化工周报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - Fundamental Changes: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - Fundamental Changes: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - Soda Ash Market Situation: - Supply: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - Spot Market: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - Glass Import and Export: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - Pulp Market Review and Outlook: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - Fundamental Changes: - Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - Paper Pulp Import Volume: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - Paper Pulp Inventory Situation: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - Downstream Market: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].