宏观贵金属周报-20251024

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows an external - stable and internal - weak pattern, with large deflationary pressure and no urgent need for a new round of comprehensive growth - stabilizing measures. The new policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost the economy in Q4 [4]. - Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, and the upcoming consultations and summit are expected to reach agreements on relaxing export controls, commodity purchases, and extending the suspension of high - tariffs [15]. - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee sets the goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to promote high - quality development and modernization [17]. - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in H2 2025, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure [19][21]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026, but investors need to control positions due to short - term adjustment risks [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - GDP: In Q3 2025, China's real GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from Q2. The nominal GDP grew 3.73% year - on - year, a 0.21 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The GDP deflator shrank 1.02% year - on - year, with deflationary pressure remaining high [4]. - Investment: From January to September 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, turning from a 0.5% increase in January - August. Real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% [6]. - Consumption: In September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from August [6]. - Output: In September 2025, industrial output increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August [7]. - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, new - home sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and new - home sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year. Housing prices continued to decline, and inventory pressure increased [8][10]. 3.1.2 Focus - Sino - US trade tensions have shown signs of easing. After multiple rounds of tariff hikes and counter - measures, the two sides will hold the fifth - round economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27, and the leaders will meet on October 30 in South Korea [11][15]. 3.1.3 Policy - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held from October 20 - 23, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, including high - quality development, technological self - reliance, and social progress [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range of 95 - 102 in H2 2025. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield will fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.5% [19][21][23]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1052.4 tons, 22.8% higher than the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, 16% higher than the low point in May 2024 [24][25]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices have entered a new upward trend since late August. The short - term adjustment risks exist, but the upward trend may continue until 2026 [28][29][32]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly in the second half of October. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive, and the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has increased [33][34].