碳市场周报-20251024

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of October 23, the carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. The current carbon price level is equivalent to the opening price in 2021 and has declined by over 50% compared to the peak in 2024. The low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rules, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [7]. - The "十五五" period will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, construct a new energy system, and shift from the energy consumption dual - control system to the carbon emission dual - control system. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - The carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton as of October 23, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. Since June this year, the carbon quota price has been falling, and the current price is similar to the 2021 opening price, down over 50% from the 2024 peak. The optimal carry - over rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but they need to apply before June 10, 2026. The current low carbon price is related to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises, and the price may stabilize after November [7]. - In October 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price of CEA is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market News - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the GDP in the first three quarters of China was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the first, second, and third quarters increased by 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [9]. - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The electricity consumption in the third quarter was 2.9 trillion kWh, which was high due to high - temperature processes in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [9][10]. - On October 24, it was announced that during the "十五五" period, efforts will be made to develop non - fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. By 2030, the utilization of bulk solid waste is expected to reach about 4.5 billion tons. The carbon emission dual - control system will be implemented, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries [10]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content is provided in the given text, only the names of the figures are mentioned, such as "Figure 3: Year - on - year growth rate of power generation (%)" and "Figure 4: Year - on - year growth rate of newly installed power generation equipment (%)" [13].