能源化工周报：塑料-20251024

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of plastics is expected to increase. Although the device maintenance remains at a medium level, some major overhaul devices are gradually resuming, which brings pressure to the supply side. The performance of the traditional peak demand season is lower than expected. Although the operating rates of most downstream industries remain at a high level for the year, the subsequent orders of some factories have slowed down. Downstream enterprises are highly cautious, with low willingness to purchase raw materials, and mainly make low - price just - in - time purchases. Overall, the supply - demand trend is loose [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; PE weekly output is 648,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE capacity utilization and weekly output in China from 2021 to 2025, and the production ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from October 8, 2024, to October 8, 2025 [12][15]. Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries has seasonally increased, with a weighted operating rate of 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85% [9]. - The report presents a chart of the historical data and trends of the operating rate of PE downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the sub - item operating rates of different downstream industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, etc., from July 14, 2023, to July 14, 2025 [20]. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%; social inventory is 545,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of PE enterprise inventory and social inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 [24]. Upstream and Cost - The report displays the historical data and trends of the weekly output of ethylene produced by different methods (such as MTO) in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the total weekly output of ethylene [29]. - It also shows the historical data and trends of the weighted operating rate and weighted output of ethylene downstream industries in China from 2021 to 2025 [32]. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price decreased by 0.21% week - on - week to 7,136 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.74% week - on - week to 6,999 yuan/ton [9]. - The report presents the profit charts of different production methods of LLDPE (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) from October 7, 2024, to October 7, 2025, and the oil - based profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from June 10 to June 10 of different months [37]. - It also shows the import profit charts of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE from February 4, 2025, to August 4, 2025 [40]. Basis and Spread - The basis is 136, and the (1 - 5) spread is - 52 [9]. - The report shows the historical data and trends of the LLDPE basis in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the 1 - 5 polyethylene spread from September 8, 2025, to October 8, 2025 [45].