Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - RB2601 and HC2601: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - J2601: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - JM2601: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - I2601: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - Blast Furnace and Crude Steel: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - Pig Iron and Electric Furnace: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - Five - Major Steel Products: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - Social Inventory: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - Downstream Demand: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - Basis: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - Production and Capacity Utilization: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - Inventory and Coking Plant Profit: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - Coking Coal Import and Inventory: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - Raw Coal and Coke Production: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - Inventory and Unloading Volume: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - Shipping and Arrival: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - Domestic Ore Production and Operation: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - Transportation Cost: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - Iron Ore: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - Basis: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]
建信期货黑色金属周报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-24 12:46