甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251027

Report Overview - The report is a morning report on methanol and polyolefins issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 27, 2025, covering methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1][2] 1. Methanol Market Data - From October 2 to October 4, 2025, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2275 to 2250, and the price of CFR China decreased from 263 to 262. The daily change of Jiangsu spot was -5, and the daily change of CFR China was -2 [2] Core View - The current situation is poor. The shutdown in Iran is slower than expected, and there should still be high imports in November. It is difficult to resolve the contradiction in the 01 contract. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions. Inventory depletion is difficult, and methanol has limited upside potential. The downside space depends on the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [2] 2. Polyethylene (PE) Market Data - From October 2 to October 4, 2025, the price of North China LL remained at 6840, and the price of East China LL increased from 7025 to 7075. The daily change of North China LL was 0, and the daily change of East China LL was 25 [7] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, and social inventory is flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and America are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating. LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The new plant pressure in 2025 is significant, and focus on the commissioning of new plants [7] 3. Polypropylene (PP) Market Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of East China PP increased from 6510 to 6550, and the price of North China PP increased from 6503 to 6543. The daily change of East China PP was 25, and the daily change of North China PP was 18 [7] Core View - The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina and the mid - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] 4. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market Data - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide increased from 2450 to 2500, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4680. The daily change of Northwest calcium carbide was 50, and the daily change of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 0 [7][10] Core View - The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upper reaches is continuously accumulating. The Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, pay attention to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]