沪锌期货早报-20251027

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that the fundamentals of zinc show a supply shortage in the global zinc market from January to August 2025, but factors such as the basis, inventory, and the main position suggest a mixed outlook. The overall expectation for SHFE zinc contract ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on October 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 204,908 lots, with a total turnover of 2.28443242 billion yuan. The open interest was 213,396 lots, a decrease of 3,282 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on October 24 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,160 - 22,260 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,185 - 22,285 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,235 - 22,335 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics from October 13 - 23, 2025 - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on October 23 was 1.635 million tons, showing an increasing trend compared to October 13 [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 24 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange on October 24 were 65,849 tons, an increase of 320 tons from the previous day [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on October 24 - The LME zinc inventory on October 24 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous day [9]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Prices on October 24 - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [11]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on October 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [14]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The production of refined zinc in September 2025 was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [17]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on October 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/dry ton [4]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on October 24 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 203,463 lots, a decrease of 41,622 lots from the previous day. The total long position was 84,356 lots, a decrease of 648 lots, and the total short position was 81,659 lots, a decrease of 3,620 lots [20]. 12. Short - term View - The previous trading day saw SHFE zinc fluctuate and rise, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the short side reducing more. The short - term trend may be volatile. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, and the short - term indicator KDJ rose into the strong zone, while the trend indicator declined, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces. The recommendation for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [22].