沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251027

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - 沪镍: The nickel price fluctuated last week with average trading volume. Russian nickel supply was tight, while some imported supplies such as Sumitomo arrived. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The 2512 contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless steel price increased. The short - term nickel ore price was firm, and the freight rate was stable. The nickel iron price decreased slightly, and the cost line moved down. The stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The 2512 contract of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Overview - Nickel and Stainless Steel Price: On October 24, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,150 yuan, up 770 yuan from the previous day; the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,810 yuan, up 45 yuan. The spot price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,900 yuan, up 750 yuan [11]. Inventory - Nickel Inventory: As of October 24, the LME nickel inventory was 250,854 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 26,810 tons, down 71 tons. The total inventory was 277,664 tons, down 71 tons [14]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On October 24, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, and in Foshan was 302,600 tons. The national inventory was 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt was 74,195 tons, down 181 tons [17][18]. Raw Material Price - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price: On October 24, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel iron (8 - 12) was 930.5 yuan per nickel point, down 3.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (below 2) was 3,300 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan [21]. Production Cost - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,957 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,235 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,747 yuan [23]. Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price of nickel was 123,096 yuan per ton [26].