焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-27）-20251027

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, due to stricter safety and over - production inspections in major producing areas, coal mine production restrictions and maintenance have increased, leading to a supply contraction. Although downstream enterprises resist high coal prices, they are still making normal purchases, and coal mines have little inventory pressure. However, coking enterprises' raw material costs are high, downstream coking enterprise starts have slightly decreased, and pig iron production has continued to decline, pressuring the rigid demand for coking coal. Considering the recent positive performance of the futures market and the implementation of the second round of coke price increases, some coking enterprises' procurement enthusiasm remains high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, the continuous rise in coking coal prices has significantly increased the coking enterprises' coal - input costs, narrowing their profit margins. After the second - round coke price increase, there is an expectation of profit repair. Currently, coking enterprises' production cuts and maintenance have not expanded further, and they are maintaining previous production levels. With supply contraction and downstream steel mills' rigid demand for restocking, coking enterprises are shipping smoothly and have no inventory pressure. Although steel mills' profits are low, the blast furnace operating rate remains high, and some steel mills are still urging deliveries. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Tightening supply due to inspections, good procurement by coking enterprises, and low coal mine inventory support coal prices; considered bullish [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1300, basis is 51.5, spot premium to futures; considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [3]. - Main positions: Net long in the main coking coal contract, with a decrease in long positions; considered bullish [3]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Rising coking coal prices have squeezed profit margins, but there is an expectation of profit repair after the second - round price increase. Supply contraction and downstream restocking lead to smooth shipments; considered neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1640, basis is - 117.5, spot discount to futures; considered bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; considered bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [7]. - Main positions: Net short in the main coke contract, with a decrease in short positions; considered bearish [7]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production, difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9]. Prices - On October 24, 2017:30, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port was 1490, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched metallurgical coke increased by 20 to 1710 [10]. - Imported coking coal prices varied by origin, brand, and port, with some prices rising [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].