大越期货燃料油早报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives a neutral assessment of the fuel oil market based on multiple factors [3] Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly recovered, and the spot premium of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has narrowed. The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be bullish due to positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and ongoing sanctions against Russia. The report suggests continuing to monitor the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and waiting for the recovery of the shipping market. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2820 - 2860, and LU2601 in the range of 3240 - 3280 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has a slight upward trend as the spot discount of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has narrowed from its widest level in over five years, driven by stronger bids from Chinese ship fuel during the market closing assessment. The spot discount of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has narrowed for the first time in five trading days, pushed by stronger bids from Trafigura during the physical trading window. The weekend Sino - US trade negotiations released positive signals, and the impact of sanctions against Russia continues. Fuel oil is expected to be bullish. FU2601 is expected to operate between 2820 - 2860, and LU2601 between 3240 - 3280 [3] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur and Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has recovered slightly [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 69 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of 31 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels [3] - Market: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. The high - sulfur main position has short positions with a decrease in shorts, and the low - sulfur main position has long positions with an increase in longs [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis content 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 13 to October 22 shows fluctuations. The inventory on October 22 was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]