Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The UR is predicted to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. 3. Key Points by Section Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rates are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but narrowing price difference between domestic and international markets. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand, but the short - term market is expected to improve. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 72, with a premium/discount ratio of - 4.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The UR main contract's price has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rising, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand, the short - term price is expected to warm up, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - Likely Positive Factors: Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Domestic supply exceeding demand [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1570, with a change of +20; Shandong spot price is 1570, with a change of +20; Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; FOB China price is 2742 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1642, with a change of +4; the basis is - 72, with a change of +16; UR05 price is 1719, with a change of +9; UR09 price is 1748, with a change of +8 [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 5407, with a change of - 77; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 221,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (+15,000 tons); UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (- 236,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20251027
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-27 01:29