大越期货玻璃早报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has bottomed out and is rising, but there are many supply-side disturbances. The downstream deep-processing orders are weak, and the real estate terminal demand is sluggish. The inventory is increasing, and the price is running below the 20-day line. The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.57% from the previous value. [7] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [12] Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content provided Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 161,300 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history and was stabilizing and rebounding. [23][25] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [29][5] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five-year average. [44] Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. [45] Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal-to-gas" conversion, increasing supply-side disturbances. [4] - Negative Factors: The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [5] Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply-side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate. [6]