国债期货早报-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market is generally weak, with most yields of inter - bank market bonds rising, and long - term bonds performing poorly. The bond market is expected to fluctuate for some time, and its performance depends on the stock market, Sino - US talks, and the implementation of new regulations on fund redemptions [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF for the 8th consecutive month. Although the manufacturing PMI in September improved, it was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract (T2512.CFE) dropped 0.06% to 108.005, the 5 - year main contract (TF2512.CFE) decreased 0.05% to 105.615, and the 2 - year main contract (TS2512.CFE) fell 0.01% to 102.332 [3][7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The inter - bank market's funds remained balanced and stable, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions stable at around 1.32%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is favorable for the stock market, but there are few direct economic stimulus policies, so the pressure on bonds is not significant [3]. - On October 27, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Since 700 billion yuan of MLF matured in October, the net MLF investment this month reached 200 billion yuan, marking the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [3]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract is 0.0123, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of the TF main contract is - 0.0168, meaning the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the T main contract is 0.0235, and the basis of the TL main contract is 0.2081, both showing that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which are bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. 3.6 Position Analysis - The net position of the TS main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the TF main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the T main contract is long, but the long position is decreasing [4].