Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations today, while PP is also expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7000 (+90), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, indicating a bearish trend [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [4] - Positive Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6600 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, showing a bearish trend [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, downstream peak - season demand is supported, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [6] - Positive Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7000 (change: +20), the price of the 01 contract is 6969 (change: - 30), the basis is 31 (change: +50), the warehouse receipt is 12958 (change: 0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PE social inventory is 54.5 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6600 (change: - 20), the price of the 01 contract is 6662 (change: - 29), the basis is - 62 (change: +9), the warehouse receipt is 14586 (change: 0), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 63.9 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PP social inventory is 33.0 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 3584.5, the output is 2773.8, the net import is 1360.32, and the apparent consumption is 4134.12. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the output is 3425, the net import is 360, and the apparent consumption is 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251027
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-27 01:28