天胶早报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6] - Spot Price: The spot price is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th. The basis strengthened on October 24th [4][8][35] - Inventory: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [4][14][17] - Downstream Consumption: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: Downstream consumption is high, the spot price is resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is -585, which is bearish [4] Spot Price - The 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [14][17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]