Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under study is the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, the US government shutdown, and the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing. The domestic market is relatively weak compared to the external market. Future trends depend on the outcome of the negotiations, with expected increased volatility next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For domestic soybean meal contracts, the prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2603, and 2511 all rose slightly. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was relatively strong, with the main contract at 1060 cents. The domestic soybean meal had a low - level volatile and slight rebound this week but was weaker than the external market [6] - The external market was affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks near the tariff increase date, the US - India agreement, and the US government shutdown. In South America, the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil was progressing normally and faster than last year. The domestic market was affected by the uncertainty of importing US soybeans and the inability to confirm potential positive factors due to the US government shutdown [6] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the volatility will increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The International Grains Council (IGC) expects the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season to decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons year - on - year, the trade volume to increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption to decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending stocks to decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons [9] - As of the week of October 21, about 39% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [9] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) reported that last week (October 12 - 18), Brazil exported 1,660,345 tons of soybeans, 608,879 tons of soybean meal, and 1,437,346 tons of corn. This week (October 19 - 25), it plans to export 1,864,454 tons of soybeans, 440,243 tons of soybean meal, and 2,009,332 tons of corn [10]
建信期货豆粕日报-20251027
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-27 02:08