贵金属日评-20251027

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - Intraday Market: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - Medium - term Market: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].