原油成品油早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers mean that all four major Russian oil giants are under US sanctions. The short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. The reduction in Russian crude exports still needs to be evaluated, but Indian purchases have supported the Dubai market, and this support is expected to continue in the short term. Mid - term Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. Geopolitical concerns were triggered by the US military strike on Venezuelan transportation. The fundamentals have improved, with EIA crude oil inventories decreasing, US refinery operations rebounding, and the US Energy Department planning to buy 100,000 barrels of crude oil for the strategic reserve. However, the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. Short - term oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the mid - term upside is limited, with the oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, etc.: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, WTI prices changed by -$0.29, BRENT by -$0.05, and DUBAI by $0.30. Other price differentials and related products also showed various changes [3]. - SC, OMAN, etc.: SC prices increased by 5.20, OMAN decreased by 0.94, and other related indicators such as price differentials and domestic refined product prices also had corresponding changes during the same period [3]. - Japan Naphtha, Singapore Fuel Oil, etc.: Japan Naphtha - BRT and other related products' prices and price differentials changed from October 20 to October 24, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump will sign a historic agreement to end military conflicts. Russia will respond to new US and European sanctions. The EU has officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russian energy. UBS expects Brent crude prices to remain in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. The US government is preparing a proposal to open most US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which is opposed by local governors [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase). The US to October 10 week EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels. From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly, domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [4][5][16]. 3.4 Weekly View - Short - term: Indian purchases will continue to support the Dubai market. Oil prices may rebound with increased volatility, and the short - term supply of Russian oil to India will drop close to zero. - Mid - term: Russian supply reduction will affect the oil price center in Q4 and Q1 of 2026, which is affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine situation, the progress of the Trump - Putin meeting, and changes in Russian oil logistics. - Overall: The fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory has reached a 243 - week high, suppressing the global diesel cracking space. The mid - term upside of oil prices is limited, the oversupply situation in the fourth quarter continues, and caution is recommended when chasing high prices [5].