Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. Positive signals from China-US negotiations have kept the risk appetite of risk assets at a high level. The release of the 15th Five-Year Plan communique has also received a positive response from the market [1]. - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips due to the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold on dips in the long - term [1]. - For zinc, given the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and look for far - month reverse spread opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the news and macro - aspects [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, the spot market is tight, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term [10]. - For industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased by 10, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 333, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 977. The LME inventory decreased by 575 [1]. - Market Analysis: The market is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. There are still disturbances in the scrap copper supply in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply disturbances will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the social inventory decreased by 3,860. The LME inventory decreased by 4,550 [1]. - Market Analysis: The operating capacity is flat, the demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and there has been seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival and significant destocking after the festival. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but there are uncertainties in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459. The LME inventory increased by 2,900 [2]. - Market Analysis: The zinc price oscillated upwards. The domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. The domestic mine is expected to be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the export window has opened [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700, and the LME inventory increased by 180 [3]. - Market Analysis: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing both at home and abroad. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy has a motive to support prices [3]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - Market Analysis: The steel mill's production schedule in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory remains at a high level [3]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 5,368. The LME inventory decreased by 4,375 [6]. - Market Analysis: The tight spot market has driven up the lead price. The supply side has slow resumption of production, and the demand side has increased battery production but high finished - product inventory. The short - term supply - demand mismatch is serious [6]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the tin position increased by 4,095, and the LME inventory increased by 30 [10]. - Market Analysis: The tin price oscillated. The supply side has marginal improvement after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, but there are still uncertainties overseas. The demand is mainly supported by rigidity, and the domestic short - term supply - demand is weak [10]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 215, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 44 [11]. - Market Analysis: The production of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons [13][16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From October 20 to 24, 2025, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 600, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 60 [16]. - Market Analysis: Similar to industrial silicon, the Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].
永安期货有色早报-20251027
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-27 02:13