豆粕周报：中美贸易谈判变数，豆粕探底回升-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by the US soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean market will also be affected by these factors, along with domestic soybean production and demand [10][11]. - The main factors affecting the soybean meal market include the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the inventory level of domestic oil mills, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. For soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand are positive factors, while the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production are negative factors [14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Hints No specific content provided for weekly hints. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US trade negotiations are deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest conditions, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors: High - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was 1.1892 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04%. The basis is - 23, indicating a discount to the futures price [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. Soybeans - The inventory of soybeans in domestic oil mills was 7.1991 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.38%. The basis is 4, indicating a slight discount to the futures price [11]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed out. In the soybean market, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10][11]. 3.6 Fundamental Impact Factors Overview | Project | Situation | Driver | Next - week Expectation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Weather | Short - term normal weather in some US soybean - producing areas | Neutral | Good short - term weather in US soybean - producing areas, neutral or bearish | | Import Cost | US soybeans are oscillating, and there are still variables in Sino - US tariffs, trade negotiations, and US soybean weather | Neutral | Expected to oscillate weakly, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Pressing | The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to decline, while the pressing volume of oil mills remains high | Bearish | Short - term demand is weak, and the operation rate of oil mills is expected to decline from a high level, bullish | | Transaction | The enthusiasm for downstream forward - stocking has declined | Bearish | Market transactions are expected to be low, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Inventory | The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level | Bullish | The operation rate of upstream oil mills will decline from a high level, and the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to decline, bullish | [9] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will also remain range - bound. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3100, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4200, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: No specific option strategy provided for soybeans.