大越期货甲醇周报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple long and short factors, the methanol market is expected to remain in a volatile consolidation next week. Inland, the low inventory of upstream factories, the firm coal prices, and the relatively low methanol prices in production areas support the market, but the high overall inland operating rate, supply pressure in some areas, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories limit the upside and downside. In ports, the postponement of Iranian import cargo unloading due to sanctions reduces the downward momentum, but the weak fundamentals lead to high - volatility with both upward and downward movements. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Review - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors, with different situations inland and in ports. Inland has cost support but also supply and demand contradictions, while ports are influenced by sanctions and have weak fundamentals [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 17th to October 24th, the spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41%, in Hebei by 1.58%, in Inner Mongolia by 0.61%, and in Fujian by 1.10%, while the price in Lunan remained unchanged [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, while the futures price remained unchanged. The basis decreased from 0 to - 32 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 77 from October 17th to October 24th. Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 325 [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From October 17th to October 24th, CFR China decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61%, and the spread between them increased by 1 [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The spot price decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, the import cost decreased by 0.39%, and the import spread decreased by 23 [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from October 17th to October 24th [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 16, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 50, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 18, and the load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 102, and the MTO/MTP device load decreased by 0.15%. In the East China region, the load increased by 3.02%, and in the South China region, it decreased by 1.93% [37][38]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventories - No specific inventory data were given, but it was mentioned that port inventories were high [5]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 24.91% from October 17th to October 24th, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates, raw materials, and maintenance losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (coke oven gas, 100,000 - ton annual capacity) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end date is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1,950 tons [45]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices have different operation statuses. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [46]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Some olefin devices are in maintenance, while others are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days [47].