大越期货生猪期货早报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - Bearish: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - side: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - Demand - side: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - Price - related: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].