大越期货菜粕早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a neutral state with short - term oscillations. It is influenced by the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the potential changes in China - Canada trade relations. The market is waiting for more clarity on these factors [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, leading to a short - term tight supply in the spot market and a decrease in demand, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain, pending further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Future geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from 1.8 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 tons last year. - The spot price is 2480, with a basis of 155, indicating a premium over the futures price. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian has been fluctuating between 2460 - 2500 from October 15 - 24. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 2601 and 2605 have also shown certain fluctuations during the same period. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have decreased from 9089 on October 15 to 4260 on October 24. - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been fluctuating between 491 - 523 from October 16 - 24 [12][14][16]. 3.7 Other Related Information - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price has been relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has shown a slight fluctuation, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has been oscillating at a low level. - The import volume of rapeseed has remained stable in October, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has remained flat week - on - week. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained at a low level. - The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [17][19][22]