大越期货甲醇早报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market, stating that for the mainland, factors such as low upstream factory inventory, firm coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas support the market, but high overall mainland operating rates and supply pressure in some areas, along with squeezed olefin profits and high port inventories, limit price fluctuations. For ports, the impact of sanctions on Iranian imports reduces downward pressure, but the weak fundamentals lead to a highly volatile market with both upward and downward potential. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract trading between 2250 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The mainland market has cost - side support from low factory inventories and firm coal prices, but high operating rates and supply pressure in some areas, along with negative feedback from olefin plants, limit price movements. The port market is affected by sanctions on Iranian imports, with high volatility expected. The overall price of methanol is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract in the range of 2250 - 2310 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, port inventories have slightly decreased, the 20 - day line is downward, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyie. Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, like Inner Mongolia Donghua. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have declined significantly. Coal - to - methanol plants have a certain profit margin and are actively selling. Some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 684 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 262 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2302 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2272 yuan/ton. The basis is - 32 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have shown different trends. For example, in Jiangsu, the price has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while in Shandong, the price has remained unchanged [9]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The overall available methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [5][8]. 4. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [57]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries have different operating conditions. Some are in the process of restarting, some are operating normally, and some are under maintenance [58]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production or maintenance [59].