Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the steel industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The current week saw a good recovery in the apparent demand for the five major steel products, approaching last year's levels, but the off - balance sheet demand for steel is lower year - on - year. The inventory of plates is high, and there are expectations of blast furnace production cuts in Tangshan. If the production cuts can relieve the inventory pressure of plates, steel prices are expected to stabilize. The carbon element cost at the cost end is supportive, and iron ore is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, which may lead to an expansion of the ratio of steel to ore. Steel prices have fallen significantly previously, and steel mill profits have declined. Before the plate inventory is relieved, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3,000 and 3,200 yuan respectively and then enter a sideways consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, continue to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and gradually exit the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Steel mill profits will continue to converge before the steel production and inventory are cleared [2]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost and Profit: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of steel products in different regions and processes showed different trends. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 28 yuan/ton [2]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of the five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1 tons, an increase of 2.9% [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [2]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.4 to 9.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7 tons, an increase of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.3 to 226.0 tons, an increase of 2.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 11.2 to 326.7 tons, an increase of 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the iron ore industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, iron ore futures bottomed out and stabilized. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first decrease and then increase. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin declined slightly, pig iron production decreased from a high level, and the steel mills' demand for restocking weakened. The steel production decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, the inventory decreased, and the post - holiday demand gradually recovered but was lower than expected. The port inventory increased, the port handling volume decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased, increasing the inventory pressure. Looking forward, due to the weak operation of steel prices, the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. The iron ore market is changing from balanced and tight to loose, and the weak performance of finished products will drag down raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions, with the reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly declined. The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 5.5 to 824.9 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 [5]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 to 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 17.3%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 126.0 to 3333.5 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily port handling volume of 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decrease of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, a decrease of 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, a decrease of 5.0% [5]. - Inventory: The weekly port inventory increased by 54.7 to 14423.59 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the coke and coking coal industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot market's rhythm was inconsistent with the futures market. The mainstream coke enterprises' second - round price increase was implemented, and there is still a possibility of further price increases. The coking coal price rebounded from the bottom, providing cost support, but the coking enterprises' losses led to a decline in production. The steel mill's pig iron output decreased from a high level, steel prices were weak, and downstream demand was not strong during the peak season. The coking plant and steel mill inventories decreased, while the port inventory increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Recently, the production reduction in the Mongolian coal pithead and the increase in Shanxi's auction prices have led to concerns about supply, causing coal and coke to rebound from the bottom. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Last week, coking coal futures rose strongly, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The Mongolian coal quotation continued to rise. After a slight decline in the domestic coking coal market after the holiday, it began to rebound, and downstream procurement and restocking increased. On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The imported Mongolian coal's customs clearance volume decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotation was strong. The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decline, and there was a restocking demand after significant inventory reduction after the holiday. The coal mine, coal washery, and steel mill inventories decreased, while the coking plant, port, and port - side inventories increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short - term, with the reference range of 1150 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke, paying attention to market fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the price of the coke 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1758 yuan/ton, and the price of the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1249 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.9 to 848.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 4.7 to 433.5 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [8]. - Demand: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The weekly average daily coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0% [8]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory remained unchanged at 891.9 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.4 to 58.6 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the steel mill's coke inventory decreased by 6.3 to 633.2 tons, a decrease of 1.0%, and the port inventory increased by 4.9 to 200.1 tons, an increase of 2.5% [8]. The Fenwei coal mine's clean coal inventory decreased by 9.9 to 90.3 tons, a decrease of 9.9%. The all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory increased by 32.3 to 1029.7 tons, an increase of 3.2%, the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased by 5.4 to 783.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%, and the port inventory increased by 2.9 to 275.7 tons, an increase of 1.1% [8].
《黑色》日报-20251027
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-27 03:07