《农产品》日报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are supported by secondary fattening, but in the long run, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the outlook for pig prices is not optimistic. The short - term disk operation may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the risk of holding arbitrage positions increases [2]. 2.2 Oil Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure due to concerns about slow exports. There is a possibility of further decline, but there may be a chance of stabilizing and rebounding after the release of the MPOB report risk. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to be under pressure and seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The influence of the US soybean oil's own fundamentals has declined. The domestic inventory is at a high level, the basis is under pressure, but the oil mills may have a certain price - holding mentality due to losses in crushing margins [6]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The Sino - US negotiations are progressing, and the export prospects of US soybeans are improving. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but the crushing margins are deteriorating, and the oil mills' reluctance to sell has increased. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to be weak this year. The soybean meal lacks a continuous upward driving force, and the disk has support around 2900 [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The corn price in the Northeast is stable with a slight increase, while the price in North China has declined again. The overall corn harvest progress is over 80%, and there is still selling pressure under a bumper harvest. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. The disk is still weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the intensity of policy procurement [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Brazil's supply outlook is loose, and the raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic sugar price has a weak intention to follow the decline, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have improved, and the rigid demand for cotton raw materials is resilient. The new cotton cost has increased, which supports the cotton price. However, the cotton price also faces hedging pressure, and the marginal driving force is decreasing. The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand may first increase and then decrease this week. The egg price may rise slightly in the short term but may decline slightly in the second half of the week due to strong supply and weak demand. The main contract's rebound should pay attention to the pressure level around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with an increase rate of 35.71%. The prices of "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112397. The number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.29%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased, and the monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Oil Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Oil - The current price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8450 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased slightly, the basis decreased by 2.29%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.99% [6]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The current price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the import cost increased slightly, the import profit decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.50% to 10000 yuan/ton, the futures price of "OI601" increased slightly, the basis decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. 3.2.4 Spreads - The spreads of different varieties showed different trends, such as the three - oil inter - period spread increased, while the palm oil and rapeseed oil inter - period spreads decreased [6]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.68% to 2960 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased significantly, the import crushing margins of Argentina and Brazil showed different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2420 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased, the basis increased, the import crushing margin of Canada decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 9.40% [8]. 3.3.3 Soybeans - The current prices of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of the main contracts decreased slightly, the bases increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. 3.3.4 Spreads - The inter - period spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the oil - meal ratio showed different trends, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The futures price of "corn 2601" decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, the prices of ports and trade profits showed different trends, the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of "corn starch 2601" decreased slightly, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the starch - corn 01 spread decreased, the profit of Shandong starch increased, the open interest decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased, the 1 - 5 spread decreased, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased [14]. 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the bases increased, the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic sugar decreased [14]. 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, the cumulative sales rate in the whole country decreased, the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased, the industrial inventory in the whole country decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased. The sugar import volume increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The futures prices of "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly, the 5 - 1 spread decreased to 0, the open interest of the main contract decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the effective forecast increased significantly [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The spot prices increased slightly, the spreads between spot and futures contracts increased, and the spread between the CC Index and the FC Index decreased [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory increased significantly, the industrial inventory decreased slightly, the import volume increased, the bonded area inventory decreased slightly, the inventory of the textile industry increased year - on - year, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth increased, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased, the processing profit of textile enterprises decreased, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the export situation of textile products showed different trends [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - The futures prices of "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price in the egg - producing area increased, the basis increased, the 11 - 01 spread decreased, the price of chicken seedlings increased, the price of culled chickens decreased, the egg - feed ratio decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [17]. 3.7.2 Market Situation - The inventory of laying hens is high, the egg supply is sufficient, the demand may first increase and then decrease, and the egg price may first rise slightly and then decline slightly [17][18].