《能源化工》日报-20251027

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Recently, due to more unplanned PP maintenance, the supply recovery pace has slowed; PE maintenance has gradually peaked, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand has improved, downstream开工率 has risen, and both inventories are decreasing. The cost side provides strong support, and the weighted profits of PP and PE have narrowed again. In the short - term, driven by macro warming, stronger costs, and expected production cuts due to sanctions, PP and PE have rebounded from low levels. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract will have less new production in the future, and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [2]. Pure Benzene - Recently, with the restart of some pure benzene plants and the expected new production capacity, domestic supply remains abundant. Most downstream products of pure benzene are in loss, and some secondary downstream products have high inventories. There are more shutdowns and planned maintenance of styrene plants, so demand support is limited. The inventory in East China ports has increased slightly, and the supply pressure has risen. The overall supply - demand outlook is still loose, and price drivers are limited. In the short - term, BZ2603 itself has weak drivers and fluctuates with oil prices and styrene [3]. Styrene - Under the dual pressure of inventory and industry profits, there are more shutdowns and maintenance of styrene plants. Although two new plants have been put into operation, the overall supply pressure still exists. Demand support is limited due to economic conditions and high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound of styrene is expected to face pressure. EB12 price rebounds should be treated as short - selling opportunities [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, due to unplanned maintenance or load reduction of some PX plants, supply has shrunk compared to expectations. Demand has increased with a new PTA plant's planned operation and improved terminal orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation has improved. However, due to the overall weak expectations of oil prices and PX supply - demand, the rebound space is limited. Short - term long positions should be closed at high levels, and short - selling opportunities can be considered when Brent oil exceeds $65 per barrel [4]. - PTA: With the recovery of some PTA plant loads and the upcoming operation of new plants, the spot basis is generally weak. But due to improved terminal orders, downstream polyester sales have increased, and the basis has been repaired. In the short - term, the price has been boosted by stronger oil prices and improved PX supply - demand expectations, but the rebound space is limited. TA short - term long positions should be closed when chasing high, and short - selling opportunities can be considered. TA1 - 5 can be treated as a rolling reverse spread [4]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Recently, due to maintenance of some plants and port closures, the inventory is expected to decrease slightly next week. Cost - side oil and coal prices are strong, driving MEG to rebound. However, the long - term supply structure is weak, and there is high inventory accumulation in November - December, so the upside pressure is large. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold at high levels, and EG1 - 5 can be reversed at high levels [4]. - Short - fiber: The weekly supply - demand is stable. Supply remains high, and demand has improved with the decrease in temperature, but the ability of downstream to chase prices is weak, and processing fees have been compressed. The improvement in demand and the strength of the cost side are not sustainable, so the rebound space is limited, but the price support is strong due to low inventory. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100, and should be shorted when it is above 1000 [4]. - Bottle - chip: There is no news of further production cuts in October. In the traditional off - season of demand in the fourth quarter, demand support is insufficient, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory - building period. PR fluctuates with the cost side. In the short - term, the processing fee will decline, but attention should be paid to the change of plant load and new production capacity. Unilateral operations are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [4]. Methanol - This week, the port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The willingness to hold inventory has weakened, and both price and basis have declined. The decline in the inland market is even deeper. Overseas, many plants have shut down. On the demand side, many MTO plants have reduced their loads due to profit reasons, and more maintenance is expected. The current market is trading on the "weak reality vs. strong expectation" logic, with the core contradiction being the game between high port inventory and potential supply reduction. Although the start - up rate of traditional downstream has increased slightly, the MTO load has decreased significantly, and demand support is insufficient. In the short - term, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation of overseas gas restrictions [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and industry profits are shrinking with increasing losses. So, the demand - side support for caustic soda is weak in the short - term, and the market price lacks support. In the medium - term, as the demand purchase cycle approaches, downstream has restocking needs, and the price is expected to have some support. From the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in the first quarter of next year, so there may be concentrated restocking in the fourth quarter, and the spot liquidity may tighten. In the non - aluminum aspect, after the National Day, there may be purchasing intentions due to low prices as the non - aluminum inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to non - aluminum restocking. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and track the downstream restocking rhythm [7]. - PVC: Last week, the PVC disk stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. This week, the supply load is low due to many maintenance plants, but it is expected to increase next week. Domestic downstream start - up rates remain low, and orders are limited, with downstream mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The cost of raw materials (calcium carbide) has been rising, but the space is limited, and the ethylene price may decline next week. The cost side provides bottom support. In the future, the logic of a weak peak season is expected to continue, and the disk will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and short - term trading strategies can be considered [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - Price Changes: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices have declined. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 have increased. Some spot prices have changed slightly, and the basis of North China LL and East China pp has increased [2]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: PE and PP inventories have decreased. The PE plant start - up rate has decreased slightly, while the downstream weighted start - up rate has increased. The PP plant start - up rate has decreased, the powder start - up rate has increased, and the downstream weighted start - up rate has also increased [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Price Changes: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene and their related spreads have also changed. The import profits of pure benzene and styrene have changed [3]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have increased. The start - up rates of some plants in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price Changes: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of downstream polyester products and their cash flows, as well as PX, PTA, and MEG - related prices and spreads have all changed [4]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: MEG port inventory has increased, and the arrival expectation has decreased. The start - up rates of various plants in the polyester industrial chain have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - Price Changes: The prices of MA2601, MA2605, and spot methanol in different regions have changed. The spreads and basis have also changed [5]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: Methanol inventories (enterprise, port, and social) have increased. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream methanol plants have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price Changes: The prices of caustic soda and PVC in different forms and regions have changed. The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have also changed [7]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC (factory and social) have decreased slightly [7].