大越期货贵金属周报-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, events had little impact, funds took profits and fled, leading to a significant decline in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices are under downward pressure and will mainly fluctuate this week, with attention needed on the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data [13] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of gold and silver futures contracts and spot prices all declined. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 fell 4.89%, COMEX Gold 2512 fell 2.05%, Shanghai Silver 2512 fell 7.34%, and COMEX Silver 2512 fell 3.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.39%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.01% [4][13] - China-US economic and trade consultations were held from October 25th to 26th, and both sides reached a basic consensus on resolving concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year-on-year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the remaining time of this year. There were also developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such as the US imposing new sanctions on Russian oil companies and the EU passing a new sanctions package [13][15][16] 2. Weekly Review - Events last week had little impact, funds took profits and fled, causing a significant decline in precious metal prices. This week, there are many events and data releases, including the APEC leaders' informal meeting, central bank interest rate decisions, and the release of China's PMI and the Fed's favorite inflation indicator PCE. The downward pressure on precious metal prices remains under the optimistic trade expectation, and they will mainly fluctuate [13] 3. Fundamental Data - The US 10 - year Treasury yield oscillated and fell to 4.38%. There were also developments in economic data such as inflation and employment, and geopolitical events affected the market [13][15][23] 4. Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased significantly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 8.33%, the short position decreased by 10.89%, and the net position decreased by 6.61%. For Shanghai Silver, the net position decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 6.31%, the short position decreased by 6.98%, and the net position decreased by 4.21%. As of September 23rd, the CFTC gold net long position increased slightly, and the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase. The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly. The inventories of Shanghai Gold, COMEX Gold, Shanghai Silver, and COMEX Silver all increased [26][28][29] 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data. Under the optimistic trade expectation, the downward pressure on precious metal prices remains, and they will mainly fluctuate [13]